The Business RelationshipAtlantic Ocean is currently hurricane fuel.
Thanks to, among other factors, unusually warm sea surface temperatures, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now expects "an extremely active" Atlantic hurricane season, bumped up from the agency's earlier prediction of "above normal" activity. In an announcement Thursday, NOAA said this storm prediction is "one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks."
Already, the 2020 season has broken numerous records for the number of storms formed by this time of year. Now, the most active time of year is just around the corner, as most hurricanes form from about mid-August through late October.
Critically, more storms amp the odds of hurricanes striking land.
"In general, more active hurricane seasons have more landing hurricanes," Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, told Mashable in late April.
Colorado State's updated storm outlook is similar to NOAA's, but expects a little bit more activity. The university predicts 12 hurricanes and five major hurricanes (111 mph winds or higher), whereas NOAA expects between seven and 11 hurricanes, three to six of which could be major storms.
"This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE [Accumulated Cyclone Energy] range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season," NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, Gerry Bell, said in a statement. ACE is the measure of a season's total storm activity.
This Tweet is currently unavailable. It might be loading or has been removed.
This Tweet is currently unavailable. It might be loading or has been removed.
The big contributors to the extremely active season are:
Warmer than usual ocean temperatures. "Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are running much warmer than normal," Brian Tang, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Albany, told Mashable in July. Warmer oceans fuel tropical storms as more water naturally evaporates into the air, giving storms energy and moisture to intensify. Overall, global oceans are absorbing nearly unfathomable amounts of heat as they soak up over 90 percent of the warmth created by human-caused climate change. (The ocean's surface has warmed by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit, or 1 degree Celsius, since 1900.)
What's more, the Atlantic Ocean has also naturally been in a warmer phase since around 1995, something called the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. This added warmth creates more ideal conditions for hurricanes to form.
Hurricane scientists don't expect strong east-driving winds blowing through the Caribbean this year. These winds pummel hurricanes (called "wind shear"). "It shears or tears apart storms," Klotzbach told Mashable.
A strong West African monsoon season is likely this year. Most powerful Atlantic hurricanes are seeded by unstable air and thunderstorms traveling west from Africa. More clouds and storm activity in West Africa are linked to favorable conditions for hurricanes.
A number of potent hurricane ingredients, then, have combined in 2020. Importantly, when thunderstorms do start journeying over the part of the Atlantic where most hurricanes form (called the Atlantic Main Development Region), they'll get a boost from well-above average ocean temperatures. This area is about 1 degree Fahrenheit warmer than usual — which is a big change for the oceans.
"That extra degree makes it more likely the thunderstorms will survive going across the Atlantic," Chris Slocum, a research meteorologist at the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, told Mashable in July.
In Earth's warmer future over the coming decades and beyond, hurricane researchers don't expect more hurricanes overall. However, they expect hurricanes to grow more intense, meaning higher wind speeds and more damaging and dangerous storms.
"We think there will be an uptick in the most intense storms," said the University of Albany's Tang.
Paul Ryan tried to roast Donald Trump, and Twitter wasn't having itNo, Oprah was not wearing an ‘ankle monitor' during her Meghan Markle interview22 best tweets of the week, including Tiny Hawk and Mr. BeanA year of tech in pandemic life, by the numbersApple might launch AirTags, iPad Pro, and more on March 23Dispo repeatedly changes privacy policy after location data mistakeTesla will build a factory in Shanghai to help bring costs downOnePlus 9 will come with a charger, unlike some other modern smartphonesDictionary.com adds new words reflecting online activism and workLife insurance customers can get an Apple Watch for $25 — but there's a catchWatch George W. Bush make Obama laugh about ...wait, what?Getting all 7.8 billion humans online: What will it take?Barack Obama is back on the campaign trail, babyNo, Oprah was not wearing an ‘ankle monitor' during her Meghan Markle interviewFacebook and Italy team up to teach students how to spot fake newsTaylor Swift, BTS among acts to perform at 2021 Grammys: Full lineupBritish star falls in hole in stage, posts perfect Instagram reactionParler wanted back into the App Store. Apple said no.A driver's adorable service dog made for the perfect Uber rideBest Apple Magic Keyboard deal: $100 off models for iPad Pro and Air The Worst Poet in the World by Sadie Stein Didactic Seuss, and Other News by Sadie Stein Arthur Miller on The Crucible by Sadie Stein Literary Valentines by Timothy Leo Taranto The Worst Best Coloring Book Ever by Sadie Stein What to Read on a Stormy Weekend by Sadie Stein Second Chances by Tupelo Hassman Happy Birthday, Abraham Lincoln by Sadie Stein Hear That Lonesome Gasket Blow: Part 1 by Evan James Crying While Reading by Sadie Stein B is for Bookseller by Sadie Stein Kid Gloves by Michael McGrath Riding with Edna St. Vincent Millay: A Love Story by Ross Kenneth Urken NYT Connections hints and answers for June 6: Tips to solve 'Connections' #726. Source of All Joy: On Alina Szapocznikow by Yevgeniya Traps Seceding: A Conversation with Liz Deschenes by Lauren O'Neill The Hollywood Subway: Against the Horizontal City by Aaron Gilbreath The Netherfield Ball, and Other News by Sadie Stein Early Failures by Ben Pfeiffer Brother Sun by Michael Signorelli
2.3685s , 8223.765625 kb
Copyright © 2025 Powered by 【Business Relationship】,Defense Information Network